Let’s first address the size of the local online advertising market, then show why these masses will have a good shot at finding success in 2010, but haven’t before. If you don’t like stats, skip down to the red text below and start reading.

Borrell Research, in their 2009 “Main Street Goes Interactive” report lists 14.6 million small businesses online in the United States.  Kelsey claims 18 million. Other Yellow Pages publishers claim upwards of 22 million.  Whatever cut-off you use for small business– if you include lemonade stands and folks selling tupperware or beauty cream at night– the price point for these small businesses is $500 a month for advertising.  That’s not just PPC or even online marketing to build websites and run email campaigns– that’s the whole budget for everything.

For paid search, these businesses spend an average of $261 on paid search per employee per year– keep in mind the lie of averages, since you’re accounting for companies that spend zero, as well as those hobbyist businesses. That $261 represents 11% of the total ad budget, which works out to $2,373 per employee per year.  Assuming the average small business salary is $35k, then advertising is 7% of labor cost– low for professional service firms, but high for a retailer.

• SMBs (Small and Medium Businesses) spend on average only $267 per year on their website (hosting, development, and support).
• While all businesses spend only 26% of their online marketing dollar on advertising, SMBs spend 83%.
• While all businesses spend 67% of their online dollars on support, small businesses spend 9.3%.

Why?  They can’t afford custom development for just a couple hundred dollars.  And the ones doing paid search are using self-serve with budgets of a couple hundred dollars a month– way too small for an agency to pick up and provide a listings product, PPC campaign, site development, email autoresponder, call tracking, and the significant consulting (client education) needed to make this happen.

The small business sweet spot is $500 a month and under, while the price point in the market to truly deliver value (there are players who are less than $500 per month, but don’t deliver the full solution needed) is $2,000 per month. That gap will close in 2010.

The way it will close is through the intersection of local, mobile, and social.  The research we did at Yahoo! showed that small businesses are not comfortable with self-serve, no matter how “simple” we try to make creation of PPC campaigns, building a site through templates, setting up email autoresponders, and so forth.  Too daunting, not enough time, too expensive– and therefore it remains untouched.  The stats from 2007 were that 87% of small businesses were aware of PPC, but only 9% of them were actually doing it.  This gap underscores the point.

Video game dynamics teach users complex systems of rules via a gradual leveling and unlocking mechanism– starting from a basic set of operations and gradually revealing new features and options until players have learned the game. You can read here about these mechanisms and how they apply to Farmville, your local supermarket, learning to read, or other activity by checking out this post on social game dynamics.

Now these games have moved from the desktop to your phone– and now there are games such as FourSquare, Gowalla, and Poynt, where you can earn virtual currency in a giant, real world scavenger hunt. And the phone knows where you are, can take pictures, can collect data in ways that PC’s can’t.

And the social networks have now amassed the social graph in ways that makes game dynamics truly possible.  Facebook recently shot through 350 million users worldwide and is now 25% of the traffic in the United States– that’s 1 in 4 pageviews across ALL traffic in the US–

So now you have a mobile crowd that is connected to the social graph, earning incentives to record where they are and gather information on local businesses.

THIS is your salesforce. This is the borg that will assimilate you into the hive– the stay at home moms that will earn points for enrolling small businesses into BlitzLocal, playing a video game that happens to earn them real dollars.  This is the army of local entrepreneurs, playing not FarmVille, but BlitzVille.  We’re not calling it that, but you get the idea. Watch as thousands of stay at home dads, motivated by online video games designed to enroll small businesses use a system that simplifies the process of online marketing for local businesses.

And the small business will receive personal service from their friends, a measurable result from the system that they’re using together (after all, video games are all about clear rules), and have a good time while they’re at it. No more hard sell, no more being handed off to the next available call center agent (he says his name is “Peter”, but you know it’s not from his accent).

It will be interesting to see how the traditional model of aggressive direct sales fares in the open, social, local, mobile approach:

• Consider how they will react when small businesses demand transparency (just show me the CarFax) on how much of their dollar is actually being spent on ads versus sales commission and overhead.
• How will they deal with margin compression when their model of having multiple people involved in the process– sales, operations, engineering, support– gets squeezed down when the local/social/mobile approach requires just one person who is eager, well-educated and already has a relationship with that client?  The direct sales model has 30% of cost in sales and marketing, while the local/social/mobile model has no traditional advertising costs.
• How will the traditional sales model deal with a price point that will drop below $500 per month– maybe to $200 per month– ye still be forced to drive as much value at the previous $1,000 a month packages?  You’ll see a deflationary impact just like the rapid obsolescence of computer equipment.
• And to the software sellers, who are licensing software for $200 a month– so they do meet the price point– how will they solve the “last mile” problem of collecting enough data from that small business owner to be able to create a website that is compelling– that won’t waste the traffic that comes from a templatized PPC campaign?  The SaaS (software as a service) model of monthly software fees is appealing for its scale and ability to sell at low price points, but will fall down for not being able to integrate service.  If service weren’t necessary, then everyone would be on Adwords and WordPress already.
• What will the software and direct sales firms do when they cannot spend their way out of the margin issue, no matter how much money they raise– IPO or not?  If you’re selling $10 bills for $8, you’re not going to make it up in volume.

The model of local/social/mobile is:

• Akin to the open source software movement– a belief that the community can organize to provide products for nearly free and of better quality– that results should be transparent and that campaigns should be owned by the small business, as opposed to being held hostage so they can’t switch out.
• Keeping dollars in the local economy– to support local businesses, with anyone being able to start their own local Internet marketing firm to serve their neighbors honorably– to create a grass roots army of local Internet marketing experts.
• Employing stay at home moms, students, and anyone who is well-educated, but can’t work full-time in sales. We’ll tap into the labor market of part-time and underemployed folks, who might not be trained professionally in Internet marketing, but can use our systems to create results as good or better than the “big firms”. They might have a Masters degree, but need to spend time with the kids. Or maybe they just don’t want to work in an office 40 hours a week.

If you want to join our team, see our training processes, or even try our product for free, just drop me a line.  Gamers of the world unite. You will be assimilated.

Tricky question, so let me answer it this way:

To measure penetration, we need both the numerator (number of businesses that are using IYP, traditional YP, and BBB)– divided by the denominator ( number of locally-focused businesses).

For the denominator: the traditional number bandied about at tradeshows for local biz in the US (I’m assuming you’re looking at just US for now?) is 16-23 million businesses. However, that’s a highly distorted number, since that includes “hobby” businesses– grandma selling her custom-woven socks and various part-time employment (MLM, ebay sellers, affiliates).

If you go by US census data, there are 6 million firms in the US and 7 million establishments (to account for multiple locations for franchises). Cut that down to the folks who are actually advertising in the yellow pages and you’re about half that.

Now cut out services that aren’t truly local (in my personal opinion), such as insurance or anything affiliate-related. You’re down to under 2 million.

Cut out restaurants and nail salons and you are left with 700,000– primarily professional service firms who have at least $250k in annual gross revenue and have at least 1 full-time employee.

This is the bread and butter of the yellow pages– dentists, car dealerships, restaurants, and attorneys. Net-net, depending on whose numbers you use for a numerator or denominator, you get IYP (Internet Yellow Pages) penetration of between 10 and 20% for claimed listings, and traditional YP penetration of about 50%. I asked Greg Sterling and off the top of his head, he said the 50% figure was about right.

I’ve asked folks at the BBB for their stats, since the latest I see is a few years old– will update when I hear back.

Thus, be very wary of the source of any stats you hear– there is incredible bias, depending on industry role:

• The YP folks (whether YPA or yptalk) like to say the yellow pages are not dead, but are actually holding flat at 84% usage by consumers and $30BN in annual revenue.
• The tree huggers like to say the YP folks are dead in a few years– also an overstatement.
• Then you have industry pundits who will write favorable reports about your company if you pay them a few thousand dollars (Clickable being the most egregious example).

So if you’re looking to sell software products that are under $50 a month, then you have 20 million potential businesses in the US alone, most of which don’t have websites or even enough money to do any more than sign up for a $10/month hosting package for a cookie-cutter site.

But if you are selling as an agency to local businesses that have $2k a month to spend online, then perhaps you have 500,000 firms to go after– the majority of which have websites and are doing some form of online advertising.

So don’t let statistics get in the way of the point you’re trying to make!  After all, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

It’s all about finding quality people—that’s what Court Cunningham says is the biggest challenge for Yodle, the local lead gen of which he’s CEO.  You need skilled people to both bring in new clients and set up campaigns—for them, they have 140 people in a call center dialing through the phone books and directories.  Selling clients is easy—just tell them that the average client gets a 7 to 1 return. Thus, for every dollar they spend, on average they get back $7 in sales.

But the bigger problem is that of retention.  How do you actually deliver upon the promise of calls that lead to sales?  The small business doesn’t have much money, VC-funded companies have expensive office space, overhead to cover, and profits to generate.  Plus, if your agency’s focus is aggressive growth, good sales people cost a lot of money, which further eats into whatever remaining budget you have to spend on the client’s PPC campaigns.

Cunningham mentions that Yodle spends the majority of campaign budgets on IYP (Internet Yellow Pages)—listings fees and PPC spend, as that generates the highest ROI.  BlitzLocal takes a different approach—working more on the client’s website to get it ranking in organic (free) search results.  That longer-term strategy arguably takes more effort, takes longer, and is not as automatable as just running a click budget via Google.

By not having to touch a client’s website (whether building a new one or tweaking the existing one), it’s easier for Yodle to scale up their customer base. And should the customer wish to leave, all their traffic disappears instantly.  

By the way, Nathaniel Stevens is the founder of Yodle– the brainchild and super genius that started the company, NatPal, while still a student at UPenn. His original vision may or may not be reflected in the current company operations, which is no longer a start-up. We had dinner a couple months back to discuss– more on that another day.

We believe that the strategy that will win for the small business in the long run is to be transparent in our techniques, focus on a blend of natural and paid search traffic, and to help them integrate online marketing into their traditional marketing.  The downside of this is that BlitzLocal isn’t going to grow as fast.  But we believe that in the long-run, the marketplace will become more competitive and that we should be delivering at that level now.

It will be interesting to see who will win in the local agency space– the giant companies who are spending lots of money to grow as fast as possible or the myriad of local agencies (with just a couple folks each) that have clients in their own backyards.  My money is on the little guy, since there are a lot of unemployed bright people out there who are just starting to grasp the size of the local online advertising market.  Those folks will be more motivated than the corporate giants.  And we want to help them!

Yodle and Ambassador, both out of NYC, were featured in a Kelsey Group press release.  Yodle was founded by a friend of a friend of mine and just raised $10MM.  And ReachLocal’s $300MM valuation is insane.  Funny that these guys, Orange Soda, Webvisible, LocalLaunch, Marchex, and other folks are getting into the local advertising game, but that the engines and yellow pages themselves aren’t making significant innovations here.  It’s still early and it may be years before any one of these companies, BlitzLocal included, has a full suite of offerings that truly helps local companies get more leads– not just on the web, but via any channel.

The risk of trying to grow quickly in a new market is hiring over-aggressive sales people, hiring too quickly, spending your newfound venture capital money and putting growth ahead of true success.  I’ve seen big players put marketshare ahead of both profitability as well as client success.  The result of that, as discussed by the major players at the Kelsey Conferences, is high customer churn.  You can automate creation of websites and pay-per-click marketing campaigns, but it will take a lot more than that to truly deliver results to local service businesses that they can appreciate and understand.

It will be interesting to see who the leaders are 6 months from now, or even 3 years from now.  The tightening economy will only accelerate losses that “fast growth” companies are experiencing, plus reveal flaws in the business model.  I anticipate a bubble in local search within the next year, though it won’t be on the scale of the dot-com bubble.  Business fundamentals, my friends– you have to make money at some point.  And you have to do it while still providing superior results to your small biz clients and compensating your people.  Doing that is ultra hard– client acquisition is easy.